SIP Reality Calculator — What ₹10,000/Month Actually Grows To
Every bank, app, and advisor defaults to 12% CAGR — but Nifty 50's actual 10-year rolling returns have ranged from 6% to 22% depending on when you started. This calculator shows your SIP corpus across three honest scenarios: conservative (7%), realistic (11%), and optimistic (16%). No single number tells the full story.
How much you invest every month
Illustrative only. Past Nifty performance does not guarantee future returns. Returns are pre-tax and do not account for expense ratios or LTCG.
Why Your Starting Year Matters More Than Your Rate Assumption
- 2000–2010 decade: Nifty delivered roughly 14% CAGR despite two major crashes (dot-com bust and 2008 crisis). Investors who stayed invested through both crises were rewarded — those who stopped were not.
- 2010–2020 decade: Nifty delivered approximately 9% CAGR — significantly below the "safe 12%" most projections assume. A 20-year SIP starting in 2000 would still average out to ~12% overall, masking a turbulent middle decade.
- The valuation at entry matters: When you start a SIP when markets are at peak valuations (high PE ratios), the next 5–7 years typically deliver below-average returns. When you start near market lows, your long-run returns tend to be higher. Use the PE Analyser alongside this tool to gauge where markets stand today.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the realistic SIP return in India?
Historically, Nifty 50 has delivered 11–13% CAGR over long periods. But any single 10-year window can range from 6% to 22% depending on start date. 11% is a reasonable central estimate — neither the pessimist's 8% nor the optimist's 15% that fund ads tend to show.
Is 12% CAGR safe to assume for SIP?
12% is a widely used number but it is not a guarantee. It reflects the historical long-run Nifty average, but most investors will experience shorter windows that deviate significantly. Plan for 11% and treat anything higher as a bonus.
What happens to SIP in a bear market?
A bear market benefits disciplined SIP investors — you accumulate more units at lower prices. The loss only crystallises if you stop. Investors who paused SIPs during 2020 or 2008 missed the subsequent recovery. Staying invested through downturns is the single most important SIP discipline.
SIP vs lump sum — which is better?
Lump sum beats SIP mathematically if timed well. In practice, few people have large lump sums and most cannot time markets. SIP removes the timing risk by averaging your purchase price. For salaried investors, SIP is almost always the right choice.
How many years for SIP to give good returns?
The compounding effect becomes visible after 7–10 years, but the real acceleration is after 15 years. In a 10-year SIP at 11%, roughly 45% of the final corpus is gains. At 20 years, gains become nearly 70% of the corpus. Time is the most underrated variable in SIP.
Learn to Pick the Right Funds for Your SIP
Numbers are only half the story. Our Course 4 covers how to evaluate mutual funds — expense ratios, fund manager track records, factor exposures, and how to build a portfolio that survives multiple market cycles.